Thai Buddhist Monks Struggle to Stay Relevant

Giulio Di Sturco for the International Herald Tribune

Young monks rehearsed an evening candlelight ceremony at Wat Chedi Luang in Chiang Mai, Thailand. More Photos »

BAAN PA CHI, Thailand — The monks of this northern Thai village no longer perform one of the defining rituals of Buddhism, the early-morning walk through the community to collect food. Instead, the temple’s abbot dials a local restaurant and has takeout delivered.

“Most of the time, I stay inside,” said the abbot, Phra Nipan Marawichayo, who is one of only two monks living in what was once a thriving temple. “Values have changed with time.”

The gilded roofs of Buddhist temples are as much a part of Thailand’s landscape as rice paddies and palm trees. The temples were once the heart of village life, serving as meeting places, guesthouses and community centers. But many have become little more than ornaments of the past, marginalized by a shortage of monks and an increasingly secular society.

“Consumerism is now the Thai religion,” said Phra Paisan Visalo, one of the country’s most respected monks. “In the past, people went to temple on every holy day. Now, they go to shopping malls.”

The meditative lifestyle of the monkhood offers little allure to the iPhone generation. The number of monks and novices relative to the population has fallen by more than half over the last three decades. There are five monks and novices for every 1,000 people today, compared with 11 in 1980, when governments began keeping nationwide records.

Although it is still relatively rare for temples to close, many districts are so short on monks that abbots here in northern Thailand recruit across the border from impoverished Myanmar, where monasteries are overflowing with novices.

Many societies have witnessed a gradual shift from the sacred toward the profane as they have modernized. What is striking in Thailand is the compressed time frame, a vertiginous pace of change brought on by the country’s rapid economic rise. In a relatively short time, the local Buddhist monk has gone from being a moral authority, teacher and community leader fulfilling important spiritual and secular roles to someone whose job is often limited to presiding over periodic ceremonies.

Phra Anil Sakya, the assistant secretary to the Supreme Patriarch of Thailand, the country’s governing body of Buddhism, said that Thai Buddhism needed “new packaging” to match the country’s fast-paced lifestyle. (Phra is the honorific title for monks in Thailand.)

“People today love high-speed things,” he said in an interview. “We didn’t have instant noodles in the past, but now people love them. For the sake of presentation, we have to change the way we teach Buddhism and make it easy and digestible like instant noodles.”

He says Buddhist leaders should make Buddhism more relevant by emphasizing the importance of meditation as a salve for stressful urban lifestyles. The teaching of Buddhism, or dharma, does not need to be tethered to the temple, he said.

“You can get dharma in department stores, or even over the Internet,” he said.

But Phra Paisan is markedly more pessimistic about what is sometimes called “fast-food Buddhism.” He is encouraged by the embrace of meditation among many affluent Thais and the healthy sales of Buddhist books, but he sees basic incompatibilities between modern life and Buddhism.

His life is a portrait of traditional Buddhist asceticism. He lives in a remote part of central Thailand in a stilt house on a lake, connected to the shore by a rickety wooden bridge. He has no furniture, sleeps on the floor and is surrounded by books. He requested that a reporter meet him for an interview at 6 a.m., before he led his fellow monks in prayer, when mist on the lake was still evaporating.

Monks are suffering a decline in “quantity and quality,” he said, partly because young people are drawn to the riches and fast-paced life of the cities. The monastic education of young boys, once widespread in rural areas, has been almost entirely replaced by the secular education provided by the state.

Poypiti Amatatham contributed reporting from Bangkok.

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The Voice Crowns a Winner!

TV Watch

By Julia Haskins

12/18/2012 at 11:20 PM EST

From left: Terry McDermott, Cassadee Pope, Nicholas David and host Carson Daly

Tyler Golden/NBC

The Voice has a new winner!

After several powerful performances the night before, the top three singers – Nicholas David (of Team Cee Lo) and Terry McDermott and Cassadee Pope (of Blake Shelton's team) – faced the music on Tuesday during the final results show of season 3.

Which one was the winner? Keep reading to find out ...

Cassadee Pope was named the winner of The Voice!

Pope thanked her fans who supported her throughout the competition. She was joined onstage by McDermott, who was the runner-up, and David, who came in third place.

It was a night of music as Rihanna, newly engaged Kelly Clarkson, Bruno Mars and the Killers celebrated with the finalists by displaying their talents.

Season 4 of The Voice premieres March 25, 2013, with Shakira and Usher stepping in to take over for Christina Aguilera and Cee Lo Green.

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Experts: Kids are resilient in coping with trauma

WASHINGTON (AP) — They might not want to talk about the gunshots or the screams. But their toys might start getting into imaginary shootouts.

Last week's school shooting in Connecticut raises the question: What will be the psychological fallout for the children who survived?

For people of any age, regaining a sense of security after surviving violence can take a long time. They're at risk for lingering anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder.

But after the grief and fear fades, psychiatrists say most of Newtown's young survivors probably will cope without long-term emotional problems.

"Kids do tend to be highly resilient," said Dr. Matthew Biel, chief of child and adolescent psychiatry at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital.

And one way that younger children try to make sense of trauma is through play. Youngsters may pull out action figures or stuffed animals and re-enact what they witnessed, perhaps multiple times.

"That's the way they gain mastery over a situation that's overwhelming," Biel explained, saying it becomes a concern only if the child is clearly distressed while playing.

Nor is it unusual for children to chase each other playing cops-and-robbers, but now parents might see some also pretending they're dead, added Dr. Melissa Brymer of the UCLA-Duke National Center for Child Traumatic Stress.

Among the challenges will be spotting which children are struggling enough that they may need professional help.

Newtown's tragedy is particularly heart-wrenching because of what such young children grappled with — like the six first-graders who apparently had to run past their teacher's body to escape to safety.

There's little scientific research specifically on PTSD, post-traumatic stress disorder, in children exposed to a burst of violence, and even less to tell if a younger child will have a harder time healing than an older one.

Overall, scientists say studies of natural disasters and wars suggest most children eventually recover from traumatic experiences while a smaller proportion develop long-term disorders such as PTSD. Brymer says in her studies of school shootings, that fraction can range from 10 percent to a quarter of survivors, depending on what they actually experienced. A broader 2007 study found 13 percent of U.S. children exposed to different types of trauma reported some symptoms of PTSD, although less than 1 percent had enough for an official diagnosis.

Violence isn't all that rare in childhood. In many parts of the world — and in inner-city neighborhoods in the U.S., too — children witness it repeatedly. They don't become inured to it, Biel said, and more exposure means a greater chance of lasting psychological harm.

In Newtown, most at risk for longer-term problems are those who saw someone killed, said Dr. Carol North of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, who has researched survivors of mass shootings.

Friday's shootings were mostly in two classrooms of Sandy Hook Elementary School, which has about 450 students through fourth-grade.

But those who weren't as close to the danger may be at extra risk, too, if this wasn't their first trauma or they already had problems such as anxiety disorders that increase their vulnerability, she said.

Right after a traumatic event, it's normal to have nightmares or trouble sleeping, to stick close to loved ones, and to be nervous or moody, Biel said.

To help, parents will have to follow their child's lead. Grilling a child about a traumatic experience isn't good, he stressed. Some children will ask a lot of questions, seeking reassurance, he said. Others will be quiet, thinking about the experience and maybe drawing or writing about it, or acting it out at playtime. Younger children may regress, becoming clingy or having tantrums.

Before second grade, their brains also are at a developmental stage some refer to as magical thinking, when it's difficult to distinguish reality and fantasy. Parents may have to help them understand that a friend who died isn't in pain or lonely but also isn't coming back, Brymer said.

When problem behaviors or signs of distress continue for several weeks, Brymer says it's time for an evaluation by a counselor or pediatrician.

Besides a supportive family, what helps? North advises getting children back into routines, together with their friends, and easing them back into a school setting. Studies of survivors of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks found "the power of the support of the people who went through it with you is huge," she said.

Children as young as first-graders can benefit from cognitive-behavioral therapy, Georgetown's Biel said. They can calm themselves with breathing techniques. They also can learn to identify and label their feelings — anger, frustration, worry — and how to balance, say, a worried thought with a brave one.

Finally, avoid watching TV coverage of the shooting, as children may think it's happening all over again, Biel added. He found that children who watched the 9/11 clips of planes hitting the World Trade Center thought they were seeing dozens of separate attacks.

___

EDITOR'S NOTE — Lauran Neergaard covers health and medical issues for The Associated Press in Washington.

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Nielsen to buy Arbitron for about $1.26B

NEW YORK (AP) — Nielsen, the dominant source of TV ratings, on Tuesday said it had agreed to buy Arbitron for about $ 1.26 billion to expand into radio measurement.

Arbitron pays 70,000 people to carry around gadgets that register what stations they’re listening to. Since Nielsen also collects cash register data, CEO David Calhoun said buying Arbitron will let Nielsen be a one-stop shop for advertisers who want to know how the radio advertising they buy affects product sales.

The acquisition will let Nielsen expand the amount of media consumption it tracks by about 2 hours per person per day to 7 hours, Calhoun said in an interview.

“You don’t find many mediums that allow for that kind of increase,” Calhoun said.

Arbitron’s operations are mainly in the U.S., while Nielsen operates globally. Calhoun said another major driver for the deal is that Nielsen wants to spread Arbitron’s tracking technology to other countries.

Evercore Partners analyst Douglas Arthur said Nielsen doesn’t need traditional radio measurement to grow, but Arbitron seemed like a willing seller, and it will be a “nice complementary but not ‘must have’ platform.”

Nielsen Holdings N.V. said it will pay $ 48 per share, which is a 26 percent premium to Arbitron’s Monday closing price of $ 38.04. Shares of Arbitron, which is based in Columbia, Md., jumped $ 8.99, or 23.6 percent, to close at $ 47.03.

Nielsen, which went public in January 2011, has headquarters in the Netherlands and New York. Its stock added $ 1.30, or 4.4 percent, to close at $ 30.92.

Nielsen said it expects the deal to add about 13 cents per share to its adjusted earnings a year after closing and about 19 cents per share to adjusted earnings two years after closing.

Abitron’s chief operating officer, Sean Creamer, is set to take over as CEO from William Kerr on Jan. 1. Calhoun said he hoped Creamer would remain with Nielsen after the deal closes.

Nielsen said it has a financing commitment for the transaction.

Nielsen was the prime source of audience ratings in the early days of radio, thanks to a device similar to Arbitron’s People Meter. The Audimeter was attached to the radio set. The company’s focus shifted to TV measurement in the 1950s.

On Monday, Nielsen announced a deal with Twitter to measure how much U.S. TV watchers tweet about the shows they’re watching. The “Nielsen Twitter TV Rating” will debut in the fall.

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Shares, euro rise on hopes of U.S. "cliff" deal, BOJ easing

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares rose and the euro hit multi-month highs on Wednesday as signs of progress in resolving the U.S. "fiscal cliff" budget crisis and expectations of more aggressive monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan lifted riskier assets.

The gains in Asia came after Wall Street's S&P 500 <.spx> rose more than 1 percent, completing its best two-day run in a month, on growing confidence a deal can be reached in Washington to avoid a raft of painful spending cuts and tax rises due to take effect from January if there is no budget agreement. <.n/>

"What is important, and what is driving the market higher, is that the two parties are now in constructive discussions over specific tax levels and spending programs, and working towards a common middle ground," said Cameron Peacock, a strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne.

Industrial commodities such as oil and copper consolidated earlier gains, while gold recovered some lost ground but remained not far above its lowest in nearly four months as progress in the U.S. budget talks limited its safe-haven appeal.

JAPAN SHARES KEEP RISING

Tokyo's Nikkei share average <.n225> rose 1.3 percent, topping 10,000 points for the first time since April, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was starting a two-day policy meeting. <.t/>

The BOJ will ease monetary policy and consider adopting a 2 percent inflation target in January, double its current price goal, sources say, after pressure from the incoming prime minister, Shinzo Abe, for stronger efforts to beat deflation.

"The market is already in overbought territory, but investors are increasingly being alarmed that there is a risk of not having Japanese stocks in their portfolios," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Australian shares <.axjo> rose to a 17-month high, led by miners and banks. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> gained 0.3 percent, while S&P 500 futures were flat.

The euro rose as far as $1.3250 on electronic trading platform EBS, its highest since the beginning of May, and against the yen it fetched 111.58, having risen as far as 111.69, its highest since late August 2011.

"Unless U.S. fiscal cliff talks take an unexpected turn for the worse, we believe that EUR/USD will meet our 1.3300 year-end target," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note.

Oil held steady, with Brent crude rising a few cents to around $108.88 a barrel and U.S. crude barely changed just below $88.

"There is more upside potential for Brent because of a revival in the overall economic outlook," said Yusuke Seta, a commodities sales manager at Newedge Japan.

Copper was also flat just above $8,020 a metric ton (1.1023 tons). Copper rallied almost 8 percent from mid-November to hit a two-month high a week ago, but has since lost some ground.

Gold rose 0.3 percent to around $1,675 an ounce, after falling to $1,661.01 on Tuesday, its lowest since August.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo and Ian Chua in Sydney; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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Pew Study Finds One in 6 Follows No Religion

A global study of religious adherence released on Tuesday by the Pew Research Center found that about one of every six people worldwide has no religious affiliation. This makes the “unaffiliated,” as the study calls them, the third-largest group worldwide, with 16 percent of the global population — about equal to Catholics.

The study also found a wide disparity in the median age of religious populations, with Muslims and Hindus the youngest, and Buddhists and Jews the oldest. The median age of the youngest group, Muslims, was 23, while the median for Jews was 36.

Over all, Christians (including Catholics) are the largest religious group, with 2.2 billion people, about 32 percent of the world’s population. They are followed by Muslims, with 1.6 billion, about 23 percent. There are about one billion Hindus, about 15 percent of the global population, and nearly half a billion Buddhists, about 7 percent.

The study, “The Global Religious Landscape,” is a snapshot of the size and distribution of religious groups as of 2010, and does not show trends over time.

“Something that may surprise a lot of people,” said Conrad Hackett, a primary researcher on the report, “is that the third-largest religious group, after Christians and Muslims, is the religiously unaffiliated. There may have been some guesses floating out there before, but this is the first time there are numbers based on survey data analyzed in a rigorous and scientific way.”

More than three-quarters of the religiously unaffiliated live in Asia, the majority in China. Many of the people in this group do hold some religious or spiritual beliefs and may even believe in a deity, but they do not identify with a particular faith.

People who practice folk or tribal religions, like African, Chinese, American Indian and Australian aboriginal traditional religions, make up another 6 percent of the world’s population. Smaller faith groups — like Bahais, Jains, Sikhs, Shintoists, Taoists, Wiccans and Zoroastrians — combined make up less than one percent of the global population. Jews, with about 14 million, make up only 0.2 percent of the global population.

The study is based on analysis of 2,500 different data sources, including censuses and demographic surveys of children and adults in 232 countries. It relies on self-identification, so it includes people who are not regular practitioners or orthodox believers of the religion they claim.

The religious groups with the youngest median ages have the highest levels of fertility and poverty and the lowest levels of female education, Jack A. Goldstone, director of the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University, in Virginia, said in an interview by e-mail. He noted that in predominantly Muslim countries where the government supports the education of women and girls, like Tunisia, Iran and Indonesia, the median age is higher than for Muslims in Africa and the Middle East.

The study also shows that about one-fourth of the world’s population lives in countries where they are a religious minority. But 97 percent of Hindus and 87 percent of Christians live in countries where they are the majority faith, said Alan Cooperman, associate director for research at the Pew Forum.

“Christians are the most evenly dispersed — except in one place, and that’s the Middle East and North Africa, which happens to be the place where Christianity originated,” Mr. Cooperman said.

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The Voice's Top Three Give Final Performances in the Competition

TV Watch

The Voice

By Julia Haskins

12/17/2012 at 10:25 PM EST

From left: Judges Adam Levine, Cee Lo Green, Christina Aguilera and Blake Shelton

Trae Patton/NBC

Monday night's episode of The Voice gave the final three contestants three chances to earn fans' votes. Each singer revisited a "breakout" song that set them apart in the competition, sang a new song and performed a duet with his or her coach.

But the night opened with a touching tribute to the victims of the Sandy Hook tragedy. Coaches and singers held up the names of each life lost while singing Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah."

Team Cee Lo's Nicholas David then kicked off the competition with Jerry Lee Lewis's "Great Balls of Fire." Not able to resist a pun, his coach chimed in on his performance: "Your fire tonight burned this house down," Green said. David later revisited his performance of Bill Withers's "Lean On Me," and joined Green for a duet of Wild Cherry's "Play That Funky Music."

Team Blake's two contestants also had the crowd cheering. Terry McDermott's sang his best song, Foreigner's "I Want to Know What Love Is," and took a stab at Mr. Mister's "Take These Broken Wings." But the crowning moment of the night for McDermott was his duet with Shelton of Aerosmith's "Dude (Looks Like a Lady)." Adam Levine played guitar alongside them, decked out in a long rocker wig.

Cassadee Pope sang "Over You," which her coach and his wife, Miranda Lambert, co-wrote. She received huge praise for singing it the first time, but the song about Shelton's late brother had special meaning in the wake of the shootings in Newtown, Conn. "America's heart is heavy, and that's about healing," Shelton said. She also moved the coaches with her take on Faith Hill's "Cry." "I don't care that you weren't on my team," Levine said. "I am so proud of you and so happy that you're here at this moment." Pope finished the night with Shelton for a duet of Sheryl Crow's "Steve McQueen."

The Voice returns Tuesday, when the season's winner will be named. Who will it be? Tell us in the comments below.

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Experts: No link between Asperger's, violence

NEW YORK (AP) — While an official has said that the 20-year-old gunman in the Connecticut school shooting had Asperger's syndrome, experts say there is no connection between the disorder and violence.

Asperger's is a mild form of autism often characterized by social awkwardness.

"There really is no clear association between Asperger's and violent behavior," said psychologist Elizabeth Laugeson, an assistant clinical professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Little is known about Adam Lanza, identified by police as the shooter in the Friday massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school. He fatally shot his mother before going to the school and killing 20 young children, six adults and himself, authorities said.

A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the unfolding investigation, said Lanza had been diagnosed with Asperger's.

High school classmates and others have described him as bright but painfully shy, anxious and a loner. Those kinds of symptoms are consistent with Asperger's, said psychologist Eric Butter of Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, who treats autism, including Asperger's, but has no knowledge of Lanza's case.

Research suggests people with autism do have a higher rate of aggressive behavior — outbursts, shoving or pushing or angry shouting — than the general population, he said.

"But we are not talking about the kind of planned and intentional type of violence we have seen at Newtown," he said in an email.

"These types of tragedies have occurred at the hands of individuals with many different types of personalities and psychological profiles," he added.

Autism is a developmental disorder that can range from mild to severe. Asperger's generally is thought of as a mild form. Both autism and Asperger's can be characterized by poor social skills, repetitive behavior or interests and problems communicating. Unlike classic autism, Asperger's does not typically involve delays in mental development or speech.

Experts say those with autism and related disorders are sometimes diagnosed with other mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder.

"I think it's far more likely that what happened may have more to do with some other kind of mental health condition like depression or anxiety rather than Asperger's," Laugeson said.

She said those with Asperger's tend to focus on rules and be very law-abiding.

"There's something more to this," she said. "We just don't know what that is yet."

After much debate, the term Asperger's is being dropped from the diagnostic manual used by the nation's psychiatrists. In changes approved earlier this month, Asperger's will be incorporated under the umbrella term "autism spectrum disorder" for all the ranges of autism.

__

AP Writer Matt Apuzzo contributed to this report.

___

Online:

Asperger's information: http://1.usa.gov/3tGSp5

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Asian shares inch higher on "fiscal cliff" hopes

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares crept higher on Tuesday, tracking the overnight gains in U.S. stocks, as fresh signs of compromise maintained a new optimism that the U.S. "fiscal cliff" budget tussle could be settled before tax hikes and spending cuts begin to bite early next year.

Oil and copper also firmed on the prospect of progress in the U.S. budget talks, but expectations of more monetary easing in Japan kept the yen soft.

President Barack Obama is seeking higher tax revenues which include increased rates on the wealthy while he is willing to cut some spending by changing the way cost of living adjustments are made to Social Security retirement benefits and other programs.

Obama's offer shows his willingness to give way on an item that some of his supporters had sought to protect, and may help advance negotiations with top Republican John Boehner to avert the fiscal cliff before the end-year deadline.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.2 percent, following a rise in global shares on Monday. The index snapped an eight-day winning streak on Monday as investors took profits from last week's rally.

Fears over the U.S. fiscal crisis have dragged on many markets, but regional equities took direction from local factors.

Australian shares <.axjo> led Asia's outperformers with a 0.7 percent gain, lifted by a rise in iron ore prices <.io62-cni> to a five-month high.

"Iron ore is a very key commodity in the Chinese industrial machine, steel usage will bounce back and that is good news for our exporters," said Baillieu Holst director Richard Morrow.

Seoul shares <.ks11> rose marginally but underperformed others in Asia, as investors were reluctant to build positions ahead of South Korea's presidential vote on Wednesday.

In Japan, the Nikkei average <.n225> surged 1.1 percent to an 8-1/2-month high and edged closer to the key 10,000-mark, with sentiment bolstered by a landslide election win for the conservative Liberal Democratic Party on Sunday. <.t/>

LDP leader Shinzo Abe, who is due to be confirmed as Japan's next premier on December 26, is calling for far more aggressive monetary stimulus and huge public works spending to rescue Japan out of decades-long deflation, pledges which are seen pressuring the yen and supporting Japanese stocks by improving earnings for Japanese exporters.

"The Nikkei is up today primarily due to the rise in U.S. stocks overnight, but the 'Abe-effect' is surprisingly longer-lasting as investors seem to be postponing the timing of unwinding their positions until they see the details and specifics in policies," said Ayako Sera, market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

YEN REMAINs PRESSURED

The dollar inched up 0.1 percent to 83.95 yen, off a 20-month high of 84.48 yen hit on Monday but well above its late New York levels on Friday.

Abe applied fresh pressure on the Bank of Japan on Monday, saying that the election result reflected strong public support for his views, which he hoped the BOJ would take into account at its two-day policy meeting starting on Wednesday.

"The dollar has more upside against the yen ahead of the BOJ's meeting, with expectations for some additional easing steps being strengthened after Abe's comments yesterday," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"The corrective fall in the dollar/yen after the election was small and it's crawling up because the yen weakening trend is still intact. But after the BOJ meeting, there will likely be pre-holiday profit-taking, pushing the dollar/yen down by 1 to 2 yen," he said, adding that the dollar could temporarily touch 85 yen before profit-taking sets in by the end of the year.

The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield hit a one-month high of 0.750 percent on concerns that big-scale fiscal stimulus could seriously increase the country's debt burden.

U.S. Treasury yields also inched up in Asia, with the 10-year yields briefly reaching 1.796 percent, its highest level since October 26, on hopes for a deal on the U.S. fiscal cliff.

London copper was up 0.2 percent to $8,078.50 a metric ton (1.1023 tons).

U.S. crude rose 0.4 percent to $87.57 a barrel and Brent added 0.5 percent to $108.18.

(Additional reporting by Victoria Thieberger in Melbourne; Editing by Eric Meijer)

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Egypt Votes on Constitution; Muslim Brotherhood Expects Approval

CAIRO — Supporters and opponents of President Mohamed Morsi sparred on Sunday over the preliminary results of a referendum on a draft constitution, which Egyptians moved toward approving in voting marked by long lines but low voter turnout.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group that supports Mr. Morsi, said that around 57 percent of those who cast ballots in the first round on Saturday voted in favor of the proposed constitution, whose drafting was dominated by Islamists. The figure was based on unofficial tallies. A second round of voting is scheduled for this Saturday in rural areas, where the draft constitution is likely to win stronger support.

While the Brotherhood hailed the “political maturity” of voters, opposition leaders disputed the unofficial results and said the voting was marred by irregularities. Each side sought to frame the results as favorable.

Although many people here predicted that the charter would be approved, the turnout was just 31 percent, according the Brotherhood’s estimates. That immediately raised doubts about whether a document intended to express a consensus on Egypt’s identity and lay the foundation of a new government had won legitimacy in the referendum.

Some also said that the low turnout and relatively narrow approval margin dented assumptions about the strength of the Brotherhood, whose extensive grass-roots network had yielded a string of electoral victories since President Hosni Mubarak was toppled in February 2011.

Some Brotherhood officials seemed surprised by the results. “It’s certainly below a lot of expectations,” said Gehad el-Haddad, a senior Brotherhood official. He and others said the polarizing political fight between Mr. Morsi’s supporters and opponents was to blame, causing a broad disillusion with politics and prompting what Mr. Haddad called Egypt’s “silent majority” to stay home.

Still, he argued that the high proportion of “no” votes came not from a rejection of the draft constitution, but rather from anger — justified or otherwise — at the Brotherhood.

“The evaluation was not on the product,” he said. “It was on the producers.”

Resentment against the Brotherhood grew in recent weeks after Mr. Morsi issued a decree insulating his decisions from judicial scrutiny and then hastily called a referendum on the constitution. Many Egyptians also blamed the Brotherhood for deadly clashes outside the presidential palace two weeks ago.

The voting on Saturday was largely peaceful, a respite after weeks of turmoil and a toxic political debate over the constitution.

The arguments started again on Sunday. A coalition of human rights groups called for a revote, saying there were thousands of complaints of violations at the polls and inadequate supervision by judges. The Brotherhood-sponsored Freedom and Justice Party also cited allegations of misbehavior by opponents at polling places, but said that in general the voting was a success. The Egyptian election commission said it would release official results after the second round.

Some opposition figures were hailing the results of the referendum as a small victory for non-Islamist political groups. Amr Hamzawy, the founder of the liberal Free Egypt Party, asserted in a message on Twitter that the relative closeness of the outcome ended the notion that the Brotherhood was unbeatable at the polls. “Saying that democratic currents have no popularity, and that the Brotherhood and their allies monopolize popular will and have the license of the boxes fell yesterday, once and for all,” Mr. Hamzawy wrote.

But analysts said that the voting had left an uncertain landscape. A much better showing for the draft constitution in the next round would probably strengthen Mr. Morsi’s hand. But if current voting patterns continue, Mr. Morsi would just as surely face steep challenges in governing. The Brotherhood could also be seen as more vulnerable in parliamentary elections due after the constitution is adopted.

Mr. Morsi’s problems could start with the charter itself. If it passes narrowly with only about one-third of eligible voters turning out, the document would have legal legitimacy, “but it’s difficult to argue it would have popular legitimacy,” said Zaid al-Ali, who has tracked Egypt’s constitution-writing process for the International Institute for Democratic and Electoral Assistance, based in Sweden. “Politically, it will be a hot potato for a long time to come,” he said.

Many countries require that constitutional referendums exceed a minimum turnout threshold to be valid, out of a belief that the fundamental nature of constitutions means that they must command broad popular support.

Some members of Egypt’s constitutional assembly seemed to agree in principle. Mr. Ali said that several members had told him that they would not be satisfied unless half of eligible voters — not just half of those casting ballots — registered approval. One member was quoted in state news media saying a two-thirds majority in favor was needed for legitimacy. But no such requirements were imposed.

A narrow outcome would oblige the president to “spend a large proportion of his time defending its legitimacy, rather than discussing specific policies,” Mr. Ali said.

Some saw the voting as a referendum not just on the charter, but also on the president’s record after five months in office. “I read this as a strong vote against the dismal, confused performance of the Morsi administration,” said Emad Shahin, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo, about the low turnout and high proportion of “no” votes. Of the president’s Islamist allies, Mr. Shahin said, “I think they thought they were on their way to really secure some kind of comfortable majority for the constitution, which did not happen.”

Whether that assessment is borne out remains to be seen. But Mr. Shahin said that the results so far already showed the need for Mr. Morsi to change his approach to his opponents, who have faulted him for failing to build consensus around contentious decisions. He said that Mr. Morsi’s government needed a transformation of “mentality”: from a state run by the Muslim Brotherhood to a “state that runs an entire country with its all political and social segments.”

Mr. Shahin laid equal blame on the opposition, for resorting to obstructionism rather than compromise at crucial junctures. He called some of the opposition leaders “irresponsible” and said they had engaged in a “massive campaign of disinformation” about the constitution, aided by segments of the news media.

Late on Sunday, opposition leaders signaled that they intended to keep the pressure on Mr. Morsi, calling simultaneously for a large protest on Tuesday, for voters to turn out heavily in the second round next Saturday and for the election commission to consider voiding the first round because of the irregularities.

David D. Kirkpatrick contributed reporting.

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